Option Trading in the Comfort Zone
Trading of options has another risk attached to it which most do not see. This article will be discussing it. When it comes to option trades, many of us calculate the mathematical probability only. However, being an option trader has made me think of the ‘Comfort Zone’ in a trade. So, what is the Comfort Zone?
The Comfort Zone lets me relax because I am confident that the position of my options is not only safe but remunerative. It is place where I am secure because there is minimal risk. This video will help us understand the traditional Iron Condor. It must be observed that the probability of the trade is only 36% in the Comfort Zone. This is indeed low. When we analyze the probability of the trade going away from the Comfort Zone, it is 83%. This is a clear indication that this trade is very risky as it has a high probability in the ‘Danger Zone’ and not in the ‘Comfort Zone’.
From observing the Calendar Spreads and ATM Butterflies, one can easily state that the Comfort Zone they hold is similar to that of the Iron Condor. An unstable market can make these trades very difficult to manage. It is not only because these trades have a very small Comfort Zone but it is also because of the fact that the stock market does not move sideways too often. In this video, if you see the price chart, you will notice that the marked moved sideways only 3 to 4 times during the last 12 months.
In contrast, the price chart indicates that the stock market went up and down 12 times over the last year. This shows us that we can forecast an up or down move easier and more consistently than a sideways move. Having this information we can conclude that over the recent period of 12 months we will could have found more bullish and bearish trades than we would have neutral trades. And the interesting thing is that with by constructing bearish and bullish trades, we can increase our Comfort Zone probability to about 85%. So not only do we have more trade opportunities within a one year period, but we also have a higher Comfort Zone which increases the quality of our life as well as our returns.
In short, the Comfort Zone is the “Realistic Probability” of a given option trade. The probability that is shown in the software includes way too much risk to find long-term success on these strategies.